Wednesday, January 8, 2014

SpoilerTV Cancellation Predictor Table 2013/14

Last Updated: 8th January 2014


Killer Women and Intelligence added to table.

Welcome to this years SpoilerTV Cancellation Predictor.

Last year, each week, we updated our data (see the notes below about how we get our data) in order to see if we could predict which show(s) would be renewed or cancelled. As you can see from , we did pretty well.

This index is by no means a 100% accurate guide about if your show is safe or in danger and should be seen as a bit of FUN.

NOTE: Until we have at least 3-4 weeks of data for each show that this table is not going to be very accurate and it will vary a lot each update. We'll try to update the full Cancellation Table every couple of days as we get new data in.

If you are new to ratings or still confused, we recommend you read this excellent .

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Remember to keep clicking on the image until it expands to full size. Normally 2 clicks. If you're still seeing an old copy, press CTRL-F5 when you are on the full image to ensure you are seeing the latest version.

NOTES - Please Read:

1) The Higher the Index Rating number the more likely a show is to get cancelled, lower numbers = safety.

2) This is an ongoing exercise that I hope to refine each week to make the index more accurate.

3) Only the major networks are included currently ie ABC/FOX/CW/CBS/NBC.

4) This chart is a prediction of all the shows using our own formula based on the viewing numbers, 18-49, and + 7 Numbers. These 3 factors are the main weighting of the Index number, however we also factor in things such as the Network they are on (eg CW shows get lower numbers), the day of week they air (eg Fridays are lower numbers), DVR Numbers and +7 and +3 numbers,DVD/Blu-Ray Sales,Production Costs, Cast Contracts/Availability, Syndication, online popularity such as streamed views and Torrents, Nielsen Online Ratings etc.

5) Shows still might not get renewed despite good numbers due eg a show coming to an end of run eg HIMYM is in it's finale season no matter what the ratings are etc or could be due to key cast wanting to leave after their contracts have expired. An example might be Supernatural if it's two leads, Jared and Jensen wanted out, would Supernatural be renewed even if it had good numbers but no leads for the new season? etc

6) Shows that have been renewed for a New Season are marked in Blue

7) Shows with an Index over 2.70 are likely to be cancelled, 2.40-2.70 - in danger and less that 2.40 safe. Although shows nearer 2.40 are more in danger than a show with a lower index.

8) You can access this page via either the Start or Features Menu above or simply by Bookmarking it.

If you have any questions/suggestions, please don't hesitate in asking in the comments below.
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